POSSIBILITY OF WORST WINTER AMID COVID-19 THIS YEAR

by Chhavi Madaan | 2020-07-14

The first wave of COVID-19 has worsened the condition of the U.K. with total cases as 2,90,133 and globally ranking at the 9th position which would move up as there is a prediction of the situation getting worse in next few months due to upcoming second wave of COVID-19 as reported by the National Health Services(NHS). Scientists working on this issue proposed reasons for the worst-case scenario related to COVID-19 to happen.

REASONS

  • The cold temperature makes it favorable for the virus to grow.
  • In winter, there is less sunlight and weather is dry which increases the stability of the virus. Also, people prefer to stay indoors at this time which would cause Vitamin-D deficiency which again promotes the growth of the virus.

HIGHLIGHTS OF NHS REPORT AND MODEL

  • The emergence of 1,20,000 – 1,99,900 death cases could happen from September to June 2020 if the government does not take urgent action regarding its control.
  • This would lead to an increase in the reproduction number of the virus beyond 1.7 which at present lies in between 0.7-0.9.
  • The government has announced that if the R-value rises above 1 lockdown will again be imposed.
  • There could be a hike in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021, similar to or worse than the first wave in spring 2020.
  • The services and pressure of NHS will get overwhelmed due to the surge of COVID-19 cases as already in winter the number of patients hospitalized is more due to respiratory disorders and common disorders like heart diseases overall leading to a backlog of patients.
  • The government does not account for the intervention to reduce transmission rate or use the steroid drug Dexamethasone in I.C.U.
  • Immediate and timely action by the government can minimize the intensity of the worse condition.

Besides this, the researchers of the Academy of Medical Sciences have warned the Chief Scientific advisor of the country, Patrick Vallance to alert the government to assess the different risks that NHS predicts to happen this winter. Then, accordingly, plan and implement the actions.

MEASURES TO CONTROL THE WORSENING COVID-19 WINTER CONDITION

  • The introduction of flu vaccines before winter arises for vulnerable health and social care workers.
  • NHS to reconstruct social care services and increase testing attempts
  • Obey social distancing and face covering as a social norm
  • Adhere to hygiene and sanitation
  • Maintain the right level of heating and ventilation
  • The rapid monitoring system in the U.K.

Stay Safe. Stay Healthy. Stay Tuned.

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